FT magazine has an article on forcasting: How to see into the future by Tim Harford. The teaser:

»Billions of dollars are spent on experts who claim they can forecast what’s around the corner, in business, finance and economics. Most of them get it wrong. Now a groundbreaking study has unlocked the secret: it IS possible to predict the future – and a new breed of ‘superforecasters’ knows how to do it«
(via the Prediction Testing community on G+)