Date of prediction: 2011-05-17

Remember the Bitcoin craze of 2011? Some believed that cryptography and peer-to-peer networking could create not only a metaphor of currency, but an actual currency. Others cautioned us, answering the question whether Bitcoin was a good idea:

»No. Bitcoin is a ludicrously bad idea. It is a scam. A Scam. It is not a currency. The economic assumptions underpinning the Bitcoin ecosystem are laughable, and ignore hundreds of years of accumulated understanding of how currencies work with each other.Fortunately, it’s such an obviously flawed system that it will probably never grow to a point where it causes any ill-effects,or even impact, to world economies.«

(Adam Cohen: Bitcoin: Is the cryptocurrency Bitcoin a good idea?)

I predict that Bitcoin will never become an important means of exchanging value on the Internet for a very simple reason. We’ve seen numerous attempts to establish cryptographic payment systems since the 1990s. All of these eventually failed in the market. The winner is the good old credit card, reliable and easy to use. To establish an alternative you’ve got to be bettern than that for the average citizen.

PS (2016-01-15):