2011 earthquake good for Japan

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Date of prediction: 2011-03-14

Nathan Gardels believes that in the long run, the 2011 earthquake will be good for Japan’s economy:

»A massive earthquake and tsunami have accomplished what Japan’s fiscal policy and central bank could not. Rebuilding a large swath of Japan will stimulate domestic growth and global demand, energy-efficient technologies, while helping to integrate China and Japan.
The result of all the new wealth creation will be money in the pockets of Japanese to buy global goods and services.«

(The Cristian Science Monitor: The silver lining of Japan’s earthquake)

1981’s pretty accurate prediction of today’s cybercrime

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Year of prediction: 1981

Follow this link to see how cybercrime was envisaged in 1981: Computer Criminals in the World of Tomorrow (1981)

This prediction-having-become-true seems to be part of a whole series from the very early 1980s, looking ahead just 20 years and thus into a future that has already become our past itself.

World’s climate could cool first, warm later

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Date of prediction: 2009-09-04

»Latif predicted that in the next few years a natural cooling trend would dominate over warming caused by humans. The cooling would be down to cyclical changes to ocean currents and temperatures in the North Atlantic, a feature known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Breaking with climate-change orthodoxy, he said NAO cycles were probably responsible for some of the strong global warming seen in the past three decades. “But how much? The jury is still out,” he told the conference. The NAO is now moving into a colder phase.

Latif said NAO cycles also explained the recent recovery of the Sahel region of Africa from the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. James Murphy, head of climate prediction at the Met Office, agreed and linked the NAO to Indian monsoons, Atlantic hurricanes and sea ice in the Arctic. “The oceans are key to decadal natural variability,” he said.

Another favourite climate nostrum was upturned when Pope warned that the dramatic Arctic ice loss in recent summers was partly a product of natural cycles rather than global warming. Preliminary reports suggest there has been much less melting this year than in 2007 or 2008.«

(New Scientist: World’s climate could cool first, warm later)

[DE] Datenpanne, das kann uns nie passieren

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So sah die Zukunft vor 30 Jahren aus:


The old dream of ubiquitous biometric authentication

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Date of Prediction: 2013-03-29

Tarun Wadhwa of Forbes prefers science fiction over the empirical observation that biometrics works best as a convenience rather than as a security feature, and predicts:

»In fact, it is an almost certainty that within the next few years, three biometric options will become standard features in every new phone: a fingerprint scanner built into the screen, facial recognition powered by high-definition cameras, and voice recognition based off a large collection of your vocal samples.«

(Forbes: Why Your Next Phone Will Include Fingerprint, Facial, and Voice Recognition)

Hey may actually be right. Convenience is more important on a mobile device than protection against the rare problem of physical-access attacks. First, however, biometric authentication needs to become as quick, reliable, and easy to manage as the PIN authentication it is supposed to replace.

De-Mail takes off

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Date of prediction: 2010-07-02

Five years after the launch of De-Mail the government expects 20 percent of the citizens to use this service and 80 percent of the administrative bodies to support it. They expect 20 providers to offer De-Mail services. De-Mail is supposed to save the state between 20 and 40 million Euros of postage cost.

»Nach dem Start des De-Mail-Dienstes Anfang 2011 werden 20 Prozent der Bundesbürger in den nächsten 5 Jahren diese Form der rechtsverbindlichen elektronischen Kommunikation mit Behörden und Unternehmen nutzen. 20 Provider werden den Dienst anbieten und die juristisch einwandfreie Identifikation dieser Bürger in Angriff nehmen, die 18,5 Millionen Euro von insgesamt 22,1 Millionen kosten soll. Unter der Annahme, dass 80 Prozent der Behörden in den ersten 5 Jahren an De-Mail teilnehmen, soll die elektronische Bürgerkommunikation helfen, dem Staat 20 bis 40 Millionen Euro Portokosten zu ersparen.«

(Heise online summarizing a draft of the law regulating De-Mail)

Good luck!

Google+ Shares to Exceed Facebook’s

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Date of prediction: 2013-06-20

A study by Searchmetrics predicts:

»Google+ will outpace Facebook in sharing of online content among U.S. users by February 2016, according to a new study from search and social analytics firm Searchmetrics.

The study projected forward the average growth in shares on the competing social networks from November 2012 to April 2013. During this period, shares on Facebook shares by nearly 10 percent; +1′s on Google+ grew nearly twice as fast.«

Google+ Shares to Exceed Facebook’s by 2016, Study Predicts,
second source:
Social sharing on Google+ to overtake Facebook by 2016 predicts new study)

To predict what the Internet will look like in 2.5 years still seems a bit daring – by 2016, users might as well be be flocking away from Google and Facebook toward something we can’t imagine yet.

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