The old dream of ubiquitous biometric authentication

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Date of Prediction: 2013-03-29

Tarun Wadhwa of Forbes prefers science fiction over the empirical observation that biometrics works best as a convenience rather than as a security feature, and predicts:

»In fact, it is an almost certainty that within the next few years, three biometric options will become standard features in every new phone: a fingerprint scanner built into the screen, facial recognition powered by high-definition cameras, and voice recognition based off a large collection of your vocal samples.«

(Forbes: Why Your Next Phone Will Include Fingerprint, Facial, and Voice Recognition)

Hey may actually be right. Convenience is more important on a mobile device than protection against the rare problem of physical-access attacks. First, however, biometric authentication needs to become as quick, reliable, and easy to manage as the PIN authentication it is supposed to replace.

De-Mail takes off

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Date of prediction: 2010-07-02

Five years after the launch of De-Mail the government expects 20 percent of the citizens to use this service and 80 percent of the administrative bodies to support it. They expect 20 providers to offer De-Mail services. De-Mail is supposed to save the state between 20 and 40 million Euros of postage cost.

»Nach dem Start des De-Mail-Dienstes Anfang 2011 werden 20 Prozent der Bundesbürger in den nächsten 5 Jahren diese Form der rechtsverbindlichen elektronischen Kommunikation mit Behörden und Unternehmen nutzen. 20 Provider werden den Dienst anbieten und die juristisch einwandfreie Identifikation dieser Bürger in Angriff nehmen, die 18,5 Millionen Euro von insgesamt 22,1 Millionen kosten soll. Unter der Annahme, dass 80 Prozent der Behörden in den ersten 5 Jahren an De-Mail teilnehmen, soll die elektronische Bürgerkommunikation helfen, dem Staat 20 bis 40 Millionen Euro Portokosten zu ersparen.«

(Heise online summarizing a draft of the law regulating De-Mail)

Good luck!

Google+ Shares to Exceed Facebook’s

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Date of prediction: 2013-06-20

A study by Searchmetrics predicts:

»Google+ will outpace Facebook in sharing of online content among U.S. users by February 2016, according to a new study from search and social analytics firm Searchmetrics.

The study projected forward the average growth in shares on the competing social networks from November 2012 to April 2013. During this period, shares on Facebook shares by nearly 10 percent; +1′s on Google+ grew nearly twice as fast.«

Google+ Shares to Exceed Facebook’s by 2016, Study Predicts,
second source:
Social sharing on Google+ to overtake Facebook by 2016 predicts new study)

To predict what the Internet will look like in 2.5 years still seems a bit daring – by 2016, users might as well be be flocking away from Google and Facebook toward something we can’t imagine yet.

Cloud computing employment boom

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Date of prediction: 2012-03-05

IDC, in a Microsoft-sponsored study, predicts a boom of cloud-created jobs by 2015:

»The market review, entitled “Cloud Computing’s Role in Job Creation,” forecasts 13.8 million new jobs from public and private cloud IT services worldwide by 2015 – with half of those expected this year – and cloud revenue reaching $1.1 trillion over that same time period. Of those anticipated hires by 2015, IDC expects more than half 7.5 million to come from enterprises with 500 or fewer employees. Prevailing thinking from the research firm is that SMBs have fewer ties to legacy systems and more limitations with IT budgets compared with their larger competitors, leading to a pool of indirect IT job growth.

Across specific industries, IDC predicts cloud jobs for communications and media to lead the way with 2.4 million hires by 2015, propelled by growing customer expectations covered by as-a-service offerings. Another batch of cloud positions are expected to be generated from process manufacturing 854,000 and discrete manufacturing 1.3 million, as manufacturing includes many SMBs looking for more on-demand collaboration and CRM, according to IDC. Banking and financial services will spend more on the cloud to meet customer needs, resulting in approximately 1.4 million cloud jobs by 2015. However, regulations and compliance, especially in the U.S., will dampen some cloud deployments and subsequent job growth in the banking sector, as well as health care 357,000 and insurance 673,000.

Regionally, the U.S. is expected to continue its dominance in private and public cloud spending. IDC foresees 1.17 million jobs in the U.S. from this cloud spending, with the largest percentage growth in municipal hires coming in its largest population centers: New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago. However, the big spike in hiring will happen overseas, as China and India are expected to take on more than 6.7 million new cloud jobs by 2015 due mostly to their vast workforces and aggressive cloud adoptions.«

(Information Management Online: Cloud Computing s Employment Boom)

[de] Jahrundertwinter

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Seine Prognose für den Winter 2015/16 traf der Mann aus Benediktbeuren bereits im August in einem Interview mit dem Tölzer Kurier. Und den ersten Schnee sagte Haslinger tatsächlich für Mitte Oktober voraus. Glaubt man dem Wetterpropheten, setzt sich der Winter aber nicht sogleich in Deutschland fest. Bis weit in den Dezember hinein erwartet er immer wieder Schneeflauten, auch auf „weiße Weihnachten“ müsse man verzichten. Doch für Januar und Februar sagt der frühere Almwirt den „Winter des Jahrhunderts“ voraus.

( Prognose für Winter 2015/16 – Droht ein Rekordwinter?)

Solar Eclipse Wreaking Havoc

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Date of prediction: 2016-03-08

A solar eclipse can be observed on 9 March, 2016 in the Pacific. One astrologer believes that a serious weather event or a prominent assassination could occur in conjunction with the eclipse.

[DE, Meta] »Es ist schlichtweg unmöglich, Unvorhersehbares vorherzusehen.«

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Vince Ebert über Prognosen und Weissagungen:

»Alleine die Dynamik des Fortschritts macht es unmöglich, die Zukunft weiter als ein Jahrzehnt vorherzusagen. Genau deswegen erscheinen uns rückblickend praktisch alle Zukunftsprognosen der namhaftesten Experten ihrer Zeit als lachhaft. Wenn man überhaupt etwas mit Gewissheit über die Zukunft sagen kann, dann nur, dass sie uns überraschen wird.«

(Die Achse des Guten: Warum unsere Zukunft nicht berechenbar ist)

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