[Meta] 10 Year Futures (vs. What’s Happening Now)

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Euro devaluation

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Date of prediction: 2016-11-15

Deutsche Bank expects that the Euro will reach parity with the US Dollar in early 2017 and continue to fall to 0.95 $ until the end of 2017.

Human head transplant

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Date of prediction: 2015-02-25

CNET and Slashdot report on a prediction of surgeon Sergio Canavero from Turin. Canavero thinks that the problem of transplanting a human head from one a dead body to a living one is a probem soon to be solved. He outlines his proposed technique in an article that appeared in an open access journal: The “Gemini” spinal cord fusion protocol: Reloaded.

[DE, META] Propheten und Moneten – Wie wir mit Statistiken manipuliert werden

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Amazon to accept Bitcoin

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Date of prediction: 2017-10-24

This short-term prediction has just come in. Amidst the current Bitcoin craze – Blockchain is the next Internet! – German newspaper Die Welt believes that Amazon might announce today that it will accept the alleged cryptocurrency as a form of payment:

“In an article Tuesday, Die Welt reported that fintech sources in Silicon Valley were echoing previous hints from investor James Altucher that the global giant could soon integrate Bitcoin as a payment option. Altucher made the comments in a report last month, citing Thursday’s conference call as a D-Day moment for Amazon and Bitcoin. Ahead of the call, which anyone can listen to, momentum that the rumors actually hold substance are mounting.”

(Cointelegraph: More Rumors Amazon Could Accept Bitcoin as All Eyes on Conference Call, Die Welt: Steckt Amazon hinter dem Bitcoin-Boom?)

They hedge their prediction with admitted uncertainty about the exact date.

If I were Amazon I would sell Bitcoin rather than accept it.

[Meta] Know Thy Futurist

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Cathy O’Neil proposes a classification of contemporary futurists in two dimensions:

“The first measurement of a futurist is the extent to which he or she believes in a singularity.
(…)
On our second axis, let’s measure the extent to which a given futurist is worried when they theorize about the future. Are they excited or scared? Cautious or jubilant?”

Source: Know Thy Futurist | Boston Review

British banks on the run

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Date of prediction: 2016-10-22

The Observer that Britain’s banks will move out rather soon:

“Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”

(Brexit politicians are putting us on a fast track to financial jeopardy; Brexit: leading banks set to pull out of UK early next year)

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