My own predictions, Technology
IBM, 5 in 5, spam, authentication
Date of prediction: 2011-12-19
IBM dares a 5-year forecast of 5 innovations that they think will change our lives. Their 2011 predictions:
(A Smarter Planet Blog: The IBM 5 in 5: Our Forecast of Five Innovations That Will Alter the Tech Landscape Within Five Years, via CNET: IBM: Mind reading is less than five years away. For real. via Nerdcore: IBMs Predictions for the next 5 Years: Mindreading and Spam)
I bet against the password prediction since I trust Cormac Herley’s predictions on such matters more than IBM’s; passwords are practical while biometrics has more Hollywood appeal than practical use. I also bet against the junk mail prediction, I think they don’t understand the economics of junk mail and how people game systems. I remain open-minded regarding the other three predictions.
Economy, Environment, Politics, Resources, Technology, Uncategorized
Date of prediction: 2015-12-15
Bloomberg had several pessimist scenarios for 2016:
»Oil prices soar after Islamic State destroys facilities across the Middle East. Angela Merkel is forced to resign, throwing the European Union into disarray. The dollar slumps as Russian and Iranian hackers team up to launch cyber-attacks on U.S banks.«
(Bloomberg News: A Pessimist’s Guide to the World in 2016)
The wise man does not predict, he discusses scenarios. A scenario cannot be wrong, even if it is.
Date of prediction: 2011-01-02
But 2011 will see the start of a revolution in security thinking, which will last for most of the next decade, a period that might prove to be a new age of enlightenment for information security.
Date of prediction: 2009-09-22
»CAIRO — Al-Qaida on Tuesday released a new 106-minute long video predicting President Barack Obama’s downfall at the hands of the Muslim world.
The Arabic-language video, entitled “The West and the Dark Tunnel,” is part of series of messages by the organization marking the eighth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Bin Laden released a short message of his own on Sept. 14.
“God willing, your end will be at the hands of the Muslim nation, so that the world and history will be free of your crimes and lies,” he said addressing Obama at the end of the two-part video.
(AP: Al-Qaida predicts Obama’s fall by Muslim nation)
Date of prediction: 2015-12-15
IEEE Computer Society thinks these will be the top 9 technology trends in 2016:
- Virtual Reality and Augmented Realit
- Nonvolatile Memory
- Cyber Physical Systems (CPS)
- Data Science
- Capability-based Security
- Advanced Machine Learning
- Network Function Virtualization (NFV)
Source: IEEE Computer Society Predicts Top 9 Technology Trends for 2016 • IEEE Computer Society
Update 2016-12-13: The IEEE Computer Society was honest enough to revisit and grade its predictions at the end of the year and gave itself a B+.
Date of prediction: 2015-12-11
Apple products are going to be targeted by cybercriminals in 2016, says the security industry according to a BBC report:
“According to security firm Symantec, the amount of malware aimed at Apple’s mobile operating system (iOS) has more than doubled this year, while threats to Mac computers also rose.
Security firm FireEye also expects 2016 to be a bumper year for Apple malware.”
(BBC: Cybercriminals will target Apple in 2016, say experts)
Did any cybersecurity firm ever assure us that anything would not be problem?
Date of prediction: 1967
The year 1999 as imagined in 1967: