Today, according to IBM five years ago

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Date of prediction: 2011-12-19

IBM dares a 5-year forecast of 5 innovations that they think will change our lives.  Their 2011 predictions:

(A Smarter Planet Blog: The IBM 5 in 5: Our Forecast of Five Innovations That Will Alter the Tech Landscape Within Five Years, via CNET: IBM: Mind reading is less than five years away. For real. via Nerdcore: IBMs Predictions for the next 5 Years: Mindreading and Spam)

I bet against the password prediction since I trust Cormac Herley’s predictions on such matters more than IBM’s; passwords are practical while biometrics has more Hollywood appeal than practical use. I also bet against the junk mail prediction, I think they don’t understand the economics of junk mail and how people game systems. I remain open-minded regarding the other three predictions.

Electronic ID card use in Germany

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Date of prediction: 2010-10-29

The new electronic ID card, introduced in Germany 2010-11-01, will see limited use online. Support will be widespread, if at all, only in applications that:

  • require a low level of security (e.g. electronic filing of tax forms), or
  • are regulated to make formal ID checks mandatory.

Businesses that are free to choose will largely ignore the government-issued electronic ID.

Bitcoin cryptocurrency wasn’t

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Date of prediction: 2011-05-17

Remember the Bitcoin craze of 2011? Some believed that cryptography and peer-to-peer networking could create not only a metaphor of currency, but an actual currency. Others cautioned us, answering the question whether Bitcoin was a good idea:

»No. Bitcoin is a ludicrously bad idea. It is a scam. A Scam. It is not a currency. The economic assumptions underpinning the Bitcoin ecosystem are laughable, and ignore hundreds of years of accumulated understanding of how currencies work with each other.Fortunately, it’s such an obviously flawed system that it will probably never grow to a point where it causes any ill-effects,or even impact, to world economies.«

(Adam Cohen: Bitcoin: Is the cryptocurrency Bitcoin a good idea?)

I predict that Bitcoin will never become an important means of exchanging value on the Internet for a very simple reason. We’ve seen numerous attempts to establish cryptographic payment systems since the 1990s. All of these eventually failed in the market. The winner is the good old credit card, reliable and easy to use. To establish an alternative you’ve got to be bettern than that for the average citizen.

PS (2016-01-15): https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.3z803wavn

Bold bitcoins predictions

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Date of prediction: 2011-05-15

The bitcoins nerds overestimate the power of their cryptographic toys:

We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months. Additionally, we’re certain bitcoins will soar in value and a crush of folks will flood the system and start using them.

Currently there are 6M coins at $6.70 each for a total economy of about $40M. Bitcoin speculation and hoarding will also cause a massive spike in bitcoin value. For example, if 10M people find out about bitcoins in the next year and want to buy $100 worth, $1B will be infused into the bitcoin economy.

Finally, there will be massive breakage in bitcoins. If your laptop crashes and you didn’t back up your bitcoins, well, you’re SOL. If someone steals you laptop that has 10,000 bitcoins on it you won on Bitcoin Poker, you’re SOL. Lost your USB drive with 500 bitcoins on it after a night out on the town? You’re SOL.

Sites like 99designs, eLance and oDesk will start accepting bitcoins for payment. If they don’t, they will face competition from folks who do.

Bottom line: The world is going to be turned over by bitcoins unless governments step in and ban them by prosecuting individuals.This is about to get really interesting, everyone.

(Bitcoin P2P Currency: The Most Dangerous Project We’ve Ever Seen)

I predict they will fail to change the world.

Schnellkochtopf

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Datum der Voraussage: 2010-03-26

Freistetters Schnellkochtopf steht in der Ecke und verstaubt.

Conficker status check

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Date of prediction: 2009-04-23

Conficker, the computer worm, will continue to be mentioned in the media. It will continue to do little actual damage, though. No spectacular large-scale attack will be carried out using the Conficker botnet.

(This prediction is backed by some research of others on Conficker.)