Tablets dead by 2018

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Date of prediction: 2013-04-30

While others predict the end of the PC and its replacement with tables, Thorsten Heins, CEO of BlackBerry, expects the quick demise of the tablet market. He thinks that tablets will remain a novelty and may lose their appeal soon, becoming irrelevant as early as 2018.

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Foldable Smartphones

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Date of prediction: 2016-12-17

“Apple, the American Multinational is reportedly launching foldable iPhones by the end of next year. Though Apple hasn’t yet announced a single word regarding this matter, rumours about Apple manufacturing high-end foldable iPhones with the collaboration of LG are hitting the market with a faster pace. If such gossips and unofficial rumours are to be believed, we can expect foldable iPhones from Apple by the end of 2017.”

Source: Apple to introduce foldable iPhones in 2017, followed by Google and Microsoft

Amazon to accept Bitcoin

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Date of prediction: 2017-10-24

This short-term prediction has just come in. Amidst the current Bitcoin craze – Blockchain is the next Internet! – German newspaper Die Welt believes that Amazon might announce today that it will accept the alleged cryptocurrency as a form of payment:

“In an article Tuesday, Die Welt reported that fintech sources in Silicon Valley were echoing previous hints from investor James Altucher that the global giant could soon integrate Bitcoin as a payment option. Altucher made the comments in a report last month, citing Thursday’s conference call as a D-Day moment for Amazon and Bitcoin. Ahead of the call, which anyone can listen to, momentum that the rumors actually hold substance are mounting.”

(Cointelegraph: More Rumors Amazon Could Accept Bitcoin as All Eyes on Conference Call, Die Welt: Steckt Amazon hinter dem Bitcoin-Boom?)

They hedge their prediction with admitted uncertainty about the exact date.

If I were Amazon I would sell Bitcoin rather than accept it.

Clickjacking 2017

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Date of prediction: 2009-06-03

»The future: Long standing Web application security scourges such SQL Injection (SQLi), Cross-Site Scripting (XSS), and Cross-Site Request Forgery (CSRF) are finally under control. Remaining buffer overflow issues are considered fossilized evidence of a prior era. Cyber criminals out of necessity have evolved their attack portfolios to include Clickjacking as a preferred method for tricking their victims into propagating malware, defrauding themselves, and initiating other forms a malicious acts. Clickjacking, a long-known and fundamental design problem in the way the Web works, had not until 2017 garnered the respect necessary to be taken seriously. Now with significant damage increasing and loses mounting, the issue has forced website owners and browser developers to scramble for solutions to a problem nearly a decade in the making. Or so the story may go should history repeats itself.«

(Jeremiah Grossman: Clickjacking 2017)

Internet censorship predictions

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Date of prediction: 2009-04-23

In April 2009 Germany started to block access to child pornography site on the Internet. Some citizens suspect that this might be only a starting point for more extensive censorship. The Web site zensiertdas.net took bets what, after child pornography as the door opener, will be censored next. As of 2009-04-23 the conflated prediction of all participants is:

  1. Wikileaks
  2. File sharing
  3. Anonymization services
  4. The Pirate Bay
  5. Right-wing extremism
  6. Lists of censored sites
  7. Anscheinsjugendpornographie (hard to translate, it means pronography with adults that look like minors)
  8. Bomb construction manuals
  9. Killer games, meaning first-person shooters
  10. CCC, the Chaos Computer Club
  11. Fefe, a hacker and popular blogger
  12. rapidshare
  13. 4chan, an imageboard
  14. Hacker tools
  15. Regierungskritiker (people critical of the government; dissidents)
  16. gulli
  17. youporn
  18. Left-wing extremism
  19. illegale Internettauschboersen (illegal file sharing systems)
  20. Tor
  21. Warez
  22. Porn
  23. encryption algorithms
  24. torrent
  25. Gambling
  26. indymedia
  27. pedophile forums
  28. Free speech
  29. Web proxies
  30. Schäuble criticism
  31. TorServer
  32. piratenpartei
  33. This site
  34. The Pirate Bay
  35. Blogs
  36. Google
  37. Bomb construction manuals
  38. Your own opinion
  39. Al Qaida
  40. Chans
  41. Criticism of religion
  42. wikipedia
  43. Killer game manufacturers
  44. Gay porn
  45. neo-nazis
  46. Microsoft
  47. Autonomous channels
  48. cracks
  49. Heise
  50. Jungsforum, a pedophile portal

Here is the original list as a screenshot (click to enlarge):

Collective censorship bet, zensiertdas.net, 2009-04-23

Today, according to IBM five years ago

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Date of prediction: 2011-12-19

IBM dares a 5-year forecast of 5 innovations that they think will change our lives.  Their 2011 predictions:

(A Smarter Planet Blog: The IBM 5 in 5: Our Forecast of Five Innovations That Will Alter the Tech Landscape Within Five Years, via CNET: IBM: Mind reading is less than five years away. For real. via Nerdcore: IBMs Predictions for the next 5 Years: Mindreading and Spam)

I bet against the password prediction since I trust Cormac Herley’s predictions on such matters more than IBM’s; passwords are practical while biometrics has more Hollywood appeal than practical use. I also bet against the junk mail prediction, I think they don’t understand the economics of junk mail and how people game systems. I remain open-minded regarding the other three predictions.

A Pessimist’s Guide to the World in 2016

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Date of prediction: 2015-12-15

Bloomberg had several pessimist scenarios for 2016:

»Oil prices soar after Islamic State destroys facilities across the Middle East. Angela Merkel is forced to resign, throwing the European Union into disarray. The dollar slumps as Russian and Iranian hackers team up to launch cyber-attacks on U.S banks.«

(Bloomberg News: A Pessimist’s Guide to the World in 2016)

The wise man does not predict, he discusses scenarios. A scenario cannot be wrong, even if it is.

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