British banks on the run

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Date of prediction: 2016-10-22

The Observer that Britain’s banks will move out rather soon:

“Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”

(Brexit politicians are putting us on a fast track to financial jeopardy; Brexit: leading banks set to pull out of UK early next year)

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Internet censorship predictions

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Date of prediction: 2009-04-23

In April 2009 Germany started to block access to child pornography site on the Internet. Some citizens suspect that this might be only a starting point for more extensive censorship. The Web site zensiertdas.net took bets what, after child pornography as the door opener, will be censored next. As of 2009-04-23 the conflated prediction of all participants is:

  1. Wikileaks
  2. File sharing
  3. Anonymization services
  4. The Pirate Bay
  5. Right-wing extremism
  6. Lists of censored sites
  7. Anscheinsjugendpornographie (hard to translate, it means pronography with adults that look like minors)
  8. Bomb construction manuals
  9. Killer games, meaning first-person shooters
  10. CCC, the Chaos Computer Club
  11. Fefe, a hacker and popular blogger
  12. rapidshare
  13. 4chan, an imageboard
  14. Hacker tools
  15. Regierungskritiker (people critical of the government; dissidents)
  16. gulli
  17. youporn
  18. Left-wing extremism
  19. illegale Internettauschboersen (illegal file sharing systems)
  20. Tor
  21. Warez
  22. Porn
  23. encryption algorithms
  24. torrent
  25. Gambling
  26. indymedia
  27. pedophile forums
  28. Free speech
  29. Web proxies
  30. Schäuble criticism
  31. TorServer
  32. piratenpartei
  33. This site
  34. The Pirate Bay
  35. Blogs
  36. Google
  37. Bomb construction manuals
  38. Your own opinion
  39. Al Qaida
  40. Chans
  41. Criticism of religion
  42. wikipedia
  43. Killer game manufacturers
  44. Gay porn
  45. neo-nazis
  46. Microsoft
  47. Autonomous channels
  48. cracks
  49. Heise
  50. Jungsforum, a pedophile portal

Here is the original list as a screenshot (click to enlarge):

Collective censorship bet, zensiertdas.net, 2009-04-23

A Pessimist’s Guide to the World in 2016

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Date of prediction: 2015-12-15

Bloomberg had several pessimist scenarios for 2016:

»Oil prices soar after Islamic State destroys facilities across the Middle East. Angela Merkel is forced to resign, throwing the European Union into disarray. The dollar slumps as Russian and Iranian hackers team up to launch cyber-attacks on U.S banks.«

(Bloomberg News: A Pessimist’s Guide to the World in 2016)

The wise man does not predict, he discusses scenarios. A scenario cannot be wrong, even if it is.

Al-Qaida predicts Obama’s fall by Muslim nation

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Date of prediction: 2009-09-22

»CAIRO — Al-Qaida on Tuesday released a new 106-minute long video predicting President Barack Obama’s downfall at the hands of the Muslim world.

The Arabic-language video, entitled “The West and the Dark Tunnel,” is part of series of messages by the organization marking the eighth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Bin Laden released a short message of his own on Sept. 14.

(…)

“God willing, your end will be at the hands of the Muslim nation, so that the world and history will be free of your crimes and lies,” he said addressing Obama at the end of the two-part video.

(AP: Al-Qaida predicts Obama’s fall by Muslim nation)

Trump not going to win

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Date of prediction: various (before election day)

Donald Trump elected President of the United States

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Date of prediction: 2015-08-13

Scott Adams, of Dilbert fame, predicts that Donald Trump will become the next President of the United States:

“Now that Trump owns FOX, and I see how well his anchor trick works with the public, I’m going to predict he will be our next president. I think he will move to the center on social issues (already happening) and win against Clinton in a tight election.”

(Scott Adams, Clown Genius, via Fefe)

Adams believes superior persuasion tactics on Trump’s part will do the job.

De-Mail takes off

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Date of prediction: 2010-07-02

Five years after the launch of De-Mail the government expects 20 percent of the citizens to use this service and 80 percent of the administrative bodies to support it. They expect 20 providers to offer De-Mail services. De-Mail is supposed to save the state between 20 and 40 million Euros of postage cost.

»Nach dem Start des De-Mail-Dienstes Anfang 2011 werden 20 Prozent der Bundesbürger in den nächsten 5 Jahren diese Form der rechtsverbindlichen elektronischen Kommunikation mit Behörden und Unternehmen nutzen. 20 Provider werden den Dienst anbieten und die juristisch einwandfreie Identifikation dieser Bürger in Angriff nehmen, die 18,5 Millionen Euro von insgesamt 22,1 Millionen kosten soll. Unter der Annahme, dass 80 Prozent der Behörden in den ersten 5 Jahren an De-Mail teilnehmen, soll die elektronische Bürgerkommunikation helfen, dem Staat 20 bis 40 Millionen Euro Portokosten zu ersparen.«

(Heise online summarizing a draft of the law regulating De-Mail)

Good luck!

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