Amazon to accept Bitcoin

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Date of prediction: 2017-10-24

This short-term prediction has just come in. Amidst the current Bitcoin craze – Blockchain is the next Internet! – German newspaper Die Welt believes that Amazon might announce today that it will accept the alleged cryptocurrency as a form of payment:

“In an article Tuesday, Die Welt reported that fintech sources in Silicon Valley were echoing previous hints from investor James Altucher that the global giant could soon integrate Bitcoin as a payment option. Altucher made the comments in a report last month, citing Thursday’s conference call as a D-Day moment for Amazon and Bitcoin. Ahead of the call, which anyone can listen to, momentum that the rumors actually hold substance are mounting.”

(Cointelegraph: More Rumors Amazon Could Accept Bitcoin as All Eyes on Conference Call, Die Welt: Steckt Amazon hinter dem Bitcoin-Boom?)

They hedge their prediction with admitted uncertainty about the exact date.

If I were Amazon I would sell Bitcoin rather than accept it.

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British banks on the run

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Date of prediction: 2016-10-22

The Observer that Britain’s banks will move out rather soon:

“Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”

(Brexit politicians are putting us on a fast track to financial jeopardy; Brexit: leading banks set to pull out of UK early next year)

A Pessimist’s Guide to the World in 2016

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Date of prediction: 2015-12-15

Bloomberg had several pessimist scenarios for 2016:

»Oil prices soar after Islamic State destroys facilities across the Middle East. Angela Merkel is forced to resign, throwing the European Union into disarray. The dollar slumps as Russian and Iranian hackers team up to launch cyber-attacks on U.S banks.«

(Bloomberg News: A Pessimist’s Guide to the World in 2016)

The wise man does not predict, he discusses scenarios. A scenario cannot be wrong, even if it is.

Security new age

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Date of prediction: 2011-01-02

But 2011 will see the start of a revolution in security thinking, which will last for most of the next decade, a period that might prove to be a new age of enlightenment for information security.

David Lacey,
http://www.computerweekly.com/blogs/david_lacey/2011/01/security_forecasts_for_2011.html

2011 earthquake good for Japan

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Date of prediction: 2011-03-14

Nathan Gardels believes that in the long run, the 2011 earthquake will be good for Japan’s economy:

»A massive earthquake and tsunami have accomplished what Japan’s fiscal policy and central bank could not. Rebuilding a large swath of Japan will stimulate domestic growth and global demand, energy-efficient technologies, while helping to integrate China and Japan.
(…)
The result of all the new wealth creation will be money in the pockets of Japanese to buy global goods and services.«

(The Cristian Science Monitor: The silver lining of Japan’s earthquake)

Google+ Shares to Exceed Facebook’s

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Date of prediction: 2013-06-20

A study by Searchmetrics predicts:

»Google+ will outpace Facebook in sharing of online content among U.S. users by February 2016, according to a new study from search and social analytics firm Searchmetrics.

The study projected forward the average growth in shares on the competing social networks from November 2012 to April 2013. During this period, shares on Facebook shares by nearly 10 percent; +1′s on Google+ grew nearly twice as fast.«

(SocialTimes:
Google+ Shares to Exceed Facebook’s by 2016, Study Predicts,
second source:
Social sharing on Google+ to overtake Facebook by 2016 predicts new study)

To predict what the Internet will look like in 2.5 years still seems a bit daring – by 2016, users might as well be be flocking away from Google and Facebook toward something we can’t imagine yet.

Cloud computing employment boom

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Date of prediction: 2012-03-05

IDC, in a Microsoft-sponsored study, predicts a boom of cloud-created jobs by 2015:

»The market review, entitled “Cloud Computing’s Role in Job Creation,” forecasts 13.8 million new jobs from public and private cloud IT services worldwide by 2015 – with half of those expected this year – and cloud revenue reaching $1.1 trillion over that same time period. Of those anticipated hires by 2015, IDC expects more than half 7.5 million to come from enterprises with 500 or fewer employees. Prevailing thinking from the research firm is that SMBs have fewer ties to legacy systems and more limitations with IT budgets compared with their larger competitors, leading to a pool of indirect IT job growth.

Across specific industries, IDC predicts cloud jobs for communications and media to lead the way with 2.4 million hires by 2015, propelled by growing customer expectations covered by as-a-service offerings. Another batch of cloud positions are expected to be generated from process manufacturing 854,000 and discrete manufacturing 1.3 million, as manufacturing includes many SMBs looking for more on-demand collaboration and CRM, according to IDC. Banking and financial services will spend more on the cloud to meet customer needs, resulting in approximately 1.4 million cloud jobs by 2015. However, regulations and compliance, especially in the U.S., will dampen some cloud deployments and subsequent job growth in the banking sector, as well as health care 357,000 and insurance 673,000.

Regionally, the U.S. is expected to continue its dominance in private and public cloud spending. IDC foresees 1.17 million jobs in the U.S. from this cloud spending, with the largest percentage growth in municipal hires coming in its largest population centers: New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago. However, the big spike in hiring will happen overseas, as China and India are expected to take on more than 6.7 million new cloud jobs by 2015 due mostly to their vast workforces and aggressive cloud adoptions.«

(Information Management Online: Cloud Computing s Employment Boom)

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