Date of prediction: 2012-09-19

The text of their press release seems a bit more defensive than the headline, but this can’t mask their bold claim. Their prediction is even based on data, they analyzed citations to find the most influential researchers in each Nobel category. This is what they found:

CHEMISTRY

  • Louis E. Brus (Columbia University)
  • Akira Fujishima (Tokyo University of Science)
  • Masatake Haruta (Tokyo Metropolitan University) & Graham J. Hutchings (Cardiff University)

PHYSICS

  • Charles H. Bennett (IBM) & Gilles Brassard (University of Montreal) & William K. Wootters (Williams College)
  • Leigh T. Canham (University of Birmingham)
  • Stephen E. Harris (Stanford University) & Lene V. Hau (Harvard University)

PHYSIOLOGY or MEDICINE

  • C. David Allis (Rockefeller University) & Michael Grunstein (Geffen School of Medicine)
  • Anthony “Tony” R. Hunter (University of California, San Diego) & Anthony “Tony” J. Pawson (University of Toronto)
  • Richard O. Hynes (MIT) & Erkki Ruoslahti (Sanford-Burnham Medical Research Institute) & Masatoshi Takeichi (RIKEN Center for Developmental Biology)

(Thomson Reuters Predicts 2012 Nobel Laureates, via Fischblog)

I’m really curious how well a data-based model predicts the behavior of a committee.

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