[2nd-order-metadiscussion: To make this blog a little more interesting during prediction-poor times, I’ve  introduced the Meta category, which will carry out-of-band and metalevel posts. In other words, when we aren’t making or verifying predictions we’ll discuss about predictions as such.]

An essay by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Fourth Quadrant: a Map of the Limits of Statistics, is being quoted a lot these days. To make a long story short: there is a type of decisions that are hard to make and hard to base upon empirical data and sound statistics. He calls this type the fourth quadrant and decisions in this quadrant are complex and deal with extreme events. Obviously this has an impact on predictability and how to deal wisely with predictions. Go read the  essay if you haven’t done so yet.

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