Date of prediction: 2006-07
In 2006, Foreign Policy magazine interviewed 116 experts on the likelihood of major terrorist attacks over the next five years:
»The Very People were asked to put forward their considered opinions about how likely it was that “a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11” would again occur in the United States by the end of 2011—that is, by last Saturday.
Fully 70 percent found it likely and another 9 percent proclaimed it to be certain. Only 21 percent, correctly as we now know, considered it unlikely.«
(The National Interest:
New Year Brings Good News on Terrorism: Experts Wrong Again, via Schneier on Security)
Berlin, Germany, islamist, Reichstag, terrorism
Date of prediction: 2010-11-20
Der Spiegel reports that a terrorist group has plotted an attack against the Reichstag building in Berlin. According to the reports, the attack is scheduled for February or March, 2011 [quote in German]:
»Das Terrornetzwerk Al Qaida und verbündete Gruppierungen planen nach einem Bericht des Magazins „Der Spiegel“ möglicherweise einen Anschlag auf den Berliner Reichstag. Dabei wollten sie Geiseln nehmen und mit Schusswaffen ein Blutbad anrichten, meldete das Magazin am Samstag vorab.
Die Anschläge seien für Februar oder März geplant.«
Terrorwarnung: Magazin: Attentat auf Reichstag geplant;
Terroristen planen angeblich Anschlag auf den Reichstag)
They cite as a source an unnamed djihadist that they say has contacted the German federal police BKA.
attack, Germany, terrorism
Date of prediction: 2010-11-17
»Security measures are being stepped up in Germany after Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere said there were clear indications of a terror plot targeting the country.
Mr de Maiziere gave no details about a specific plot, apart from saying it was planned for later this month.«
(BBC News: Germany reconsiders terror risk)
Al-Qaeda, terrorism, USA
Date of prediction: 2010-02-03
Al-Qaeda can be expected to attempt an attack on the United States in the next three to six months, senior U.S. intelligence officials told Congress. The terrorist organization is deploying operatives to the United States to carry out new attacks from inside the country, including “clean” recruits with a negligible trail of terrorist contacts, CIA Director Leon Panetta said.
(USATODAY.com: Intel chief: Al-Qaeda likely to attempt attack)
Al-Qaida, Germany, terrorism
Date of prediction: 2009-09-18
»”If the German people choose war, then they have delivered their own sentence,” says Harrach in the video, which has been obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE. Then jihad would come to Germany, he says. He advises Muslims in Germany to avoid all places which are “essential to daily life” — possibly meaning busy public places — for a period of 14 days after the election and to keep their children close to them. He says that “the city of Kiel” will remain safe in any case, for reasons that are not explained.«
(Spiegel Online: New Video Message: Al-Qaida Threatens Terror Attacks in Germany after Election)
Added 2009-10-11: Looks like the jihadist failed in predicting his own attack. I’m not impressed (nor scared).