Ahead of his time

(youtube)

80% of Internet users will have a “Second Life”

Date of prediction: 2007-04-24 (added here 2009-10-19)

»By the end of 2011, 80 percent of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a “second life”, but not necessarily in Second Life, according to Gartner, Inc.«

(Gartner press release)

9/11-scale terrorist attack likely until 2011

Date of prediction: 2006-07

In 2006, Foreign Policy magazine interviewed 116 experts on the likelihood of major terrorist attacks over the next five years:

»The Very People were asked to put forward their considered opinions about how likely it was that “a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11” would again occur in the United States by the end of 2011—that is, by last Saturday.

Fully 70 percent found it likely and another 9 percent proclaimed it to be certain. Only 21 percent, correctly as we now know, considered it unlikely.«

(The National Interest:
New Year Brings Good News on Terrorism: Experts Wrong Again, via Schneier on Security)

Meta: Jack’s Pandering Pentagram of Prognostication

Making predictions is a common exercise in the security industry and elsewhere. If you want to participate but feel unsure how to make effective predictions, the Pandering Pentagram of Prognostication is the tool you have been waiting for:

»The five points of the pentagram represent the key elements of “good” predictions, get them all and your prediction will land in the center of the pentagram, assuring a center brain shot to your victim. I mean reader. Whatever.«

(http://blog.uncommonsensesecurity.com/2011/12/pandering-pentagram-of-prognostication.html)

P.S.: The New School seems also tired of flaky predictions.

David Lacey’s Security Forecasts for 2011

Date of prediction: 2011-01-02

Nevertheless, I expect to see three major shifts in thinking during 2011.

The first is that we are likely to experience a major security incident involving the integrity of our critical national infrastructure. (…) The long haul towards building acceptably secure information systems will begin.

The second is that emerging new security technologies, based on virtualisation and trusted computing, will encourage user organisations to develop non-traditional approaches to securing enterprise infrastructure. Cloud computing technology will provide an opportunity to escape from the treadmill of patching physical platforms. Security will also migrate to the cloud, and previously-ignored controls, such as device authentication, will become fashionable.

The third is that the growing need to encourage small and medium enterprises to implement security will finally be tackled. ISSA-UK is leading the way with new standards and guidance. Their initiative is likely to set a much bigger ball rolling across the globe, as SMEs dominate supply chains across key supplier regions such as the Far East.

http://www.computerweekly.com/blogs/david_lacey/2011/01/security_forecasts_for_2011.html

Schnellkochtopf

Datum der Voraussage: 2010-03-26

Freistetters Schnellkochtopf steht in der Ecke und verstaubt.

Short-term prediction

Date of prediction: 2011-10-09

Isotopp predicts that the German government will tomorrow deny any involvement with the malware that CCC has found, and that CCC will reveal further details that indicate otherwise.

Knowledge Navigator

Date of prediction: 1987

(Youtube, background, via)

The Internet is full. Go away!

Date of prediction: 2010-01-18

According do the IPv4 Exhaustion Counter we should have run out of IPv4 addresses by now:

Bioethanol petrol saves the environment

Quoting Die Achse des Guten quoting The Guardian:

The Guardian, 2 Feb 2006: Research published last week in the US journal Science found that not only could bioethanol replace petrol with big energy savings, it would produce up to 15% less greenhouse gas emissions.
The Guardian today: Turning corn into ethanol is not environmentally sound,” said Bill Freese of the Centre for Food Safety. “It’s really an environmental disaster.”

(Benny Peiser: Five years later)