Apple’s wearable arrives in October

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Date of prediction: 2014-06-06

Re/code and Nikkei predict that Apple will launch its iWatch, or some other iWearable, in October. (via heise online)

Bitcoin cryptocurrency wasn’t

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Date of prediction: 2011-05-17

Remember the Bitcoin craze of 2011? Some believed that cryptography and peer-to-peer networking could create not only a metaphor of currency, but an actual currency. Others cautioned us, answering the question whether Bitcoin was a good idea:

»No. Bitcoin is a ludicrously bad idea. It is a scam. A Scam. It is not a currency. The economic assumptions underpinning the Bitcoin ecosystem are laughable, and ignore hundreds of years of accumulated understanding of how currencies work with each other.Fortunately, it’s such an obviously flawed system that it will probably never grow to a point where it causes any ill-effects,or even impact, to world economies.«

(Adam Cohen: Bitcoin: Is the cryptocurrency Bitcoin a good idea?)

I predict that Bitcoin will never become an important means of exchanging value on the Internet for a very simple reason. We’ve seen numerous attempts to establish cryptographic payment systems since the 1990s. All of these eventually failed in the market. The winner is the good old credit card, reliable and easy to use. To establish an alternative you’ve got to be bettern than that for the average citizen.

How to see into the future

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FT magazine has an article on forcasting: How to see into the future by Tim Harford. The teaser:

»Billions of dollars are spent on experts who claim they can forecast what’s around the corner, in business, finance and economics. Most of them get it wrong. Now a groundbreaking study has unlocked the secret: it IS possible to predict the future – and a new breed of ‘superforecasters’ knows how to do it«

Visit to the World’s Fair of 2014

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Date of prediction: 1964-08-16

Fifty years ago, Isaac Asimov imagined what we’d see at a World Fair in 2014. Time to check his predictions, some of which are accurate while others seem far from reality:

»For that matter, you will be able to reach someone at the moon colonies, concerning which General Motors puts on a display of impressive vehicles (in model form) with large soft tires*intended to negotiate the uneven terrain that may exist on our natural satellite.

(…)

As for television, wall screens will have replaced the ordinary set; but transparent cubes will be making their appearance in which three-dimensional viewing will be possible. In fact, one popular exhibit at the 2014 World’s Fair will be such a 3-D TV, built life-size, in which ballet performances will be seen. The cube will slowly revolve for viewing from all angles.«

(Visit to the World’s Fair of 2014.,
via Slashdot: The World Fair of 2014 According To Asimov (From 1964))

Imminent death of cash money predicted

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Date of prediction: 2012-01-24

eBay CEO John Donahoe believes that by now, he will have replaced his wallet with some unspecified mobile payment solution (quote in German):

»Mobile Zahlungssysteme werden nach Einschätzung von Ebay-Chef John Donahoe in absehbarer Zeit das herkömmliche Bezahlen mit Bargeld ablösen. “Ich trage eine Geldbörse mit mir, mein Vater hatte eine, mein Großvater auch. In zwei Jahren wird die verschwunden sein”, sagte der Chef der Online-Handelsplattform am Dienstag auf der Internet-Konferenz DLD in München.«

(Heise Online: Ebay-Chef: Geldbörse in zwei Jahren obsolet)

BRA vs. GER prediction

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Date of prediction: 2014-07-08

FiveThirtyEight believe that the odds in BRA vs. GER favor the Seleção even after adjusting for the absence of Neymar and Silva. In a few hours we’ll know more.

Google predicts the winners of the quarterfinals

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Date of prediction: 2014-07-02

Using big data technologies, Google predicts who might win the quarterfinals of the football world cup:

  • Brazil vs. Colombia: Brazil (71%)
  • France vs. Germany: France (69%)
  • Netherlands vs. Costa Rica: Netherlands (68%)
  • Argentina vs. Belgium: Argentina (81%)

Now what would it take to refute their predictions?

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