Meta: TV programme on forecasts (in German)

Just the link: Prognosen und Vorhersagen.

Soup kitchens, tent cities in Germany

Date of prediction: 2009-04-24

The economist Max Otte predicts that we will see soup kitchens, homeless people under the bridges, tent cities, and travel and driving restrictions. He says that this will happen at the latest this fall:

Seine Vision: „Suppenküchen, Obdachlose unter den Brücken, Zeltstädte, Reiseverbote und Fahrverbote. Das könnte alles spätestens im Herbst passieren. Salopp gesagt: Dann knallt es wie ein Schlag auf den Deckel“, sagte Otte dem „Berliner Kurier“ weiter.

(Welt Online: Wirtschaftsprofessor: Crash-Guru fordert Urlaubsverbot für Deutsche)

Jihad coming to Germany (but not to Kiel) within 14 days after election

Date of prediction: 2009-09-18

»”If the German people choose war, then they have delivered their own sentence,” says Harrach in the video, which has been obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE. Then jihad would come to Germany, he says. He advises Muslims in Germany to avoid all places which are “essential to daily life” — possibly meaning busy public places — for a period of 14 days after the election and to keep their children close to them. He says that “the city of Kiel” will remain safe in any case, for reasons that are not explained.«

(Spiegel Online: New Video Message: Al-Qaida Threatens Terror Attacks in Germany after Election)

Added 2009-10-11: Looks like the jihadist failed in predicting his own attack. I’m not impressed (nor scared).

Arctic sea ice extent this September: 4.92 million km^2

Date of prediction: 2009-05-29

Robert Grumbine dares predicting the sea ice extent 4 months into the future:

»I’ve been working out, finally, my thoughts on what the sea ice cover will be like for the Arctic, in September 2009. That for the average for the month, rather than minimum at any time.

(…)

The prediction is: 4.92 million km^2, with a standard deviation to it of 0.47 million km^2. 2008 showed 4.67 million km^2, and 2007 showed 4.30 million km^2 for the month’s average. I’m not saying that the sea ice is ‘recovering’.«

(More Grumbine Science: Sea Ice Odds)

I have no idea how hard or easy it is to hit the right interval with such a prediction. Nor do I have the slightest idea how meaningful it is. Simple guessing strategies like predict a slight variation of last year’s value might work well enough for short-term predictions. However, the verified capability of making predictions about a natural system of process implies that the underlying theory is at least not obviously wrong. No matter what he really did to make his estimate, if he is right he might know something that I don’t.

Added 2009-06-23: Some information on the approach taken in making this prediction.

Added 2009-09-20: A preliminary discussion of the bet status.

Added 2009-10-11: Final results.

Britain faces summer of rage due to recession

Date of prediction: 2009-02-23

»Police are preparing for a “summer of rage” as victims of the economic downturn take to the streets to demonstrate against financial institutions, the Guardian has learned.

Britain’s most senior police officer with responsibility for public order raised the spectre of a return of the riots of the 1980s, with people who have lost their jobs, homes or savings becoming “footsoldiers” in a wave of potentially violent mass protests.«

(The Guardian: Police warn that Britain faces summer of rage due to recession, via Fefes Blog)

Industrial output 15% lower than 2008

Date of prediction: 2009-03-09

»The global economy will shrink for the first time this year since World War II, the World Bank has said.
(…)
By the middle of 2009, industrial output could be as much as 15% lower than 2008, while trade may record the biggest decline in 80 years, it said.«

(BBC NEWS: World economy to ’shrink’ in 2009)

Meta: Dan Gilbert: How we are deceived by our own miscalculations of the future

Meta: 10 predictions/month

Two months after its start, this blog has scheduled 20 predictions for verification. The earliest will appear this summersoon. [looks like the future is more volatile than even my own short-term expectations]

Looking back on copyright predictions

Just a short notice: techdirt has an article that looks at two papers from the pre-DMCA era, checking their predictions. (via Slashdot)

Meta: Limits of statistics

[2nd-order-metadiscussion: To make this blog a little more interesting during prediction-poor times, I've  introduced the Meta category, which will carry out-of-band and metalevel posts. In other words, when we aren't making or verifying predictions we'll discuss about predictions as such.]

An essay by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Fourth Quadrant: a Map of the Limits of Statistics, is being quoted a lot these days. To make a long story short: there is a type of decisions that are hard to make and hard to base upon empirical data and sound statistics. He calls this type the fourth quadrant and decisions in this quadrant are complex and deal with extreme events. Obviously this has an impact on predictability and how to deal wisely with predictions. Go read the  essay if you haven’t done so yet.