Date of prediction: 2014-06-06
Date of prediction: 2011-05-17
Remember the Bitcoin craze of 2011? Some believed that cryptography and peer-to-peer networking could create not only a metaphor of currency, but an actual currency. Others cautioned us, answering the question whether Bitcoin was a good idea:
»No. Bitcoin is a ludicrously bad idea. It is a scam. A Scam. It is not a currency. The economic assumptions underpinning the Bitcoin ecosystem are laughable, and ignore hundreds of years of accumulated understanding of how currencies work with each other.Fortunately, it’s such an obviously flawed system that it will probably never grow to a point where it causes any ill-effects,or even impact, to world economies.«
(Adam Cohen: Bitcoin: Is the cryptocurrency Bitcoin a good idea?)
I predict that Bitcoin will never become an important means of exchanging value on the Internet for a very simple reason. We’ve seen numerous attempts to establish cryptographic payment systems since the 1990s. All of these eventually failed in the market. The winner is the good old credit card, reliable and easy to use. To establish an alternative you’ve got to be bettern than that for the average citizen.
Date of prediction: 2012-01-24
eBay CEO John Donahoe believes that by now, he will have replaced his wallet with some unspecified mobile payment solution (quote in German):
»Mobile Zahlungssysteme werden nach Einschätzung von Ebay-Chef John Donahoe in absehbarer Zeit das herkömmliche Bezahlen mit Bargeld ablösen. “Ich trage eine Geldbörse mit mir, mein Vater hatte eine, mein Großvater auch. In zwei Jahren wird die verschwunden sein”, sagte der Chef der Online-Handelsplattform am Dienstag auf der Internet-Konferenz DLD in München.«
(Heise Online: Ebay-Chef: Geldbörse in zwei Jahren obsolet)
Date of prediction: 2014-07-08
FiveThirtyEight believe that the odds in BRA vs. GER favor the Seleção even after adjusting for the absence of Neymar and Silva. In a few hours we’ll know more.
Date of prediction: 2014-07-02
Using big data technologies, Google predicts who might win the quarterfinals of the football world cup:
- Brazil vs. Colombia: Brazil (71%)
- France vs. Germany: France (69%)
- Netherlands vs. Costa Rica: Netherlands (68%)
- Argentina vs. Belgium: Argentina (81%)
Now what would it take to refute their predictions?